Week Ahead: Sainsbury and Tesco go head-to-head

28th Sep 2012 09:54

There is a retail theme to next week's results, with supermarket giants Tesco and Sainsbury set to report, along with car products provider Halfords, homewares retailer Dunelm and fashion chain Ted Baker.On the economic front, central banks will be in focus with the European Central Bank making its interest rate announcement on Thursday, a few hours of the Fed's statement in the US.On Friday, the big announcement is the US non-farm payrolls figure for September, with the market expecting an increase of 116,000.Panmure Gordon's view on the trading updates of supermarket rivals Tesco and Sainsbury is that, taking the long term view, neither is very important."Sainsbury's Q2 [second quarter] trading statement is not important in the context of what we expect will be significant changes to the food retailers' strategic priorities over the next 12 months. We expect space growth to slow, investment to shift online and ultimately significant and recurring returns of capital to shareholders," the retail team at Panmure Gordon opined."We look for similar like-for-like sales growth in Q2 to that seen in Q1, which delivered 1.4% (ex-fuel). We expect to see continued growth online at around double that recorded by Ocado," the broker added. Looking at the supermarket sector as a whole, Panmure Gordon thinks the ending of the "space race" and the re-focus of investment online is "but the first step to making the sector investable again and the path that we have outlined should lead to a significant revaluation."Seymour Pierce wants to see how the aggressive money-off coupon campaign has affected sales and profitability at Tesco. "Attention will also be focused on whether the international business has slowed much from its Q1 [first quarter] update, particularly South Korea where new opening hour legislation was introduced at the end of Q1, as well as an update on the US where losses are still unacceptably high," the broker suggests. The broker is forecasting a 6% fall in first half profit before tax to £1,603m and a flat dividend per share of 4.6p. "A fall in profits from the UK is expected to be partially offset by improvements in Asia, US and the bank and flat Europe," they predict.The first quarter interim management statement from Dunelm sees the group going up easier comparatives figures, as a year ago like-for-like (LFL) sales were down 2.0% year-on-year (yoy). "However, given the deterioration in market data, we expect a sharp slowdown in LFL sales and pencil in a flat quarter for Dunelm. Gross margin likely to show modest progress yoy," Peel Hunt suggests.Monday October 01INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAvesco Group, Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group, Legal & General Group, Portmeirion Group, Robinson, Stanley Gibbons GroupINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSConstruction Spending (US) (15:00)ISM Manufacturing (US) (15:00)ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)FINALSPure Wafer, Sabien Technology GroupAGMSBegbies Traynor Group, City of London Investment Group, Swan (John) & Sons, ZetarTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSAndor Technology, ITEFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEPark Group, PZ Cussons, Swan (John) & SonsTuesday October 02INTERIMSWalker GreenbankINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEFBD Holdings, Holders TechnologyINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSAuto Sales (US) (15:00)Producer Price Index (EU) (10:00)FINALSAntisoma, St Ives, Ultimate Finance Group, WolseleyTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSBabcock International GroupFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATECity of London Group, Micro Focus International, Vianet GroupWednesday October 03INTERIMSTescoINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEGreencore Group, Kazakhmys, Novae Group, PPHE Hotel Group Ltd, Rathbone Brothers, TUI TravelINTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATEAdvanced Medical Solutions Group, Ashley (Laura) Holding, Barr (A.G.), Bodycote, Brammer, Charles Taylor, F&C Asset Management, F&C Private Equity Trust, Fairpoint Group, Fiberweb, Fisher (James) & Sons, GVC Holdings, Henry Boot, Huntsworth, Inmarsat, Judges Scientific, Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust, Motivcom, New Britain Palm Oil Ltd. (DI), Northbridge Industrial Services, office2office, Petropavlovsk, Severfield-Rowen, Staffline Group, Tandem Group, Weir Group, Witan Pacific Inv TrustQUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATEBritish Land Co, Investors Capital Trust 'A' Shares, JP Morgan Chase & Co, Mercantile Investment Trust (The), Merchants Trust, Schroder Income Growth Fund, Torchmark Corp.INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSCrude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)ISM Non-Manufacturing (US) (15:00)ISM Services (US) (15:00)MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)PMI Composite (GER) (08:55)PMI Services (GER) (08:55)Retail Sales (EU) (10:00)Q4SportingbetFINALSAI Claims Solutions, SportingbetSPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATETR European Growth TrustAGMSAurora Russia Ltd.TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSMarston's, Sainsbury (J), DunelmFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEBetfair Group, Stagecoach GroupFINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATEAbbey, Alumasc Group, City of London Investment Group, Galliford Try, JPMorgan Mid Cap Inv Trust, Smith (DS), TR European Growth Trust, Tricorn Group, Utilico Investments Ltd (DI), ZetarThursday October 04INTERIMSTed BakerINTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEAmlin, Antofagasta, ARM Holdings, Churchill China, Croda International, Eurasian Natural Resources Corp., Phoenix Group Holdings (DI), Shire Plc, Tullow OilQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEGlaxoSmithKlineINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSBloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (14:45)Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)ECB Interest Rate (EU) (12:45)Factory Orders (US) (15:00)FOMC Interest Rate Minutes (US) (19:00)Goods Orders (US) (15:00)Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)PMI Construction (GER) (08:55)Q3Sandvine Corp.FINALSAnimalcare Group, Matchtech GroupIMSSCarillionEGMSPublic Power GDR SA (Reg S)AGMSF&C US Smaller Companies, Oil & Gas Development Company Ltd GDR (Reg S), VietNam Holding LtdTRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSHalfords Group, VictrexFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEMedusa Mining Ltd. (DI)Friday October 05INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE32Red, Aggreko, Arbuthnot Banking Group, Cape, Cineworld Group, Communisis, Densitron Technologies, Devro, Elementis, Evraz, Grafton Group Units, Greggs, Hammerson, International Personal Finance, Irish Continental Group Units, Maintel Holdings, Meggitt, Michael Page International, Millennium & Copthorne Hotels, Ocean Wilsons Holdings Ltd., Regus, Resolution Ltd., SEGRO, Shaft Sinkers HoldingsQUARTERLY PAYMENT DATEBritish Assets TrustQUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATEVerizon CommunicationsINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTSConsumer Credit (US) (20:00)GDP (2nd release) (EU) (10:00)Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)GMSSperati CAFINALSImperial Innovations GroupIMSSWood Group (John)AGMSAbbey, Immofinanz AG, Madagascar Oil Ltd (DI)TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTSKCOM GroupFINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATEACM Shipping Group, Darty, ECO Animal Health Group, Pennon GroupQ1Elringklinger AGJH