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Week ahead: Non-farm payrolls in focus; Barratt, Melrose earnings due
27th Aug 2021 14:01
(Sharecast News) - The corporate and macroeconomic calendars will start to pick up again next week after the August lull, culminating in the US jobs report at the end of the week.
On the UK corporate front, Thursday sees the release of earnings from GKN owner Melrose and housebuilder Barratt Developments.
On Melrose, due to release first-half results, UBS said the autos division is expected to be affected by the ongoing semiconductor shortage, which is a known issue that could persist beyond FY21 as uncertainty remains as to when this shortage may be fixed in 2022.
"We also believe aerospace will see a slightly better-than-expected performance, but we still estimate a year-on-year decline in 1H21 of 11%. Raw material price increases are expected to have a limited impact as we believe Melrose will be able to pass on these costs to customers albeit with a slight time lag," the bank said.
As far as Barratt's full-year results are concerned, UBS said: "Given Barratt mostly guided for FY21 (to June) we don't expect major deviations from expectations."
The bank noted that consensus for GY22 pre-tax profit stands at £977m so it expects some upgrades over time given its forecast of £1.02bn.
On the macro calendar, the US non-farm payrolls report on Friday will be the highlight, with the pace of jobs growth set to have implications for the debate around how quickly the Federal Reserve tapers asset purchases.
Deutsche Bank said its economists are expecting that a further 750,000 will be added to non-farm payrolls, which will see the unemployment rate tick down to a post-pandemic low of 5.2%.
"That said, even 750k job growth for August would leave the total number of non-farm payrolls almost 5m below its pre-Covid peak back in February 2020, while the unemployment rate is some way above the 3.5% low pre-Covid, so it's clear the labour market still has some way to go to get back to its pre-Covid state.
"That's unlike the GDP figures, with real GDP having surpassed its Q4 2019 level in Q2 2021."
Monday August 30
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Canadian General Investments Ltd.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Business Climate Indicator (EU) (10:00)
Consumer Confidence (EU) (10:00)
Industrial Confidence (EU) (10:00)
Pending Homes Sales (US) (15:00)
Services Sentiment (EU) (10:00)
FINALS
Base Resources Ltd
EGMS
Afarak Group (DI)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
M4 Money Supply (09:30)
Mortgage Approvals (09:30)
Nationwide House Price Index (07:00)
Tuesday August 31
INTERIMS
AB Ignitis Grupe GDR (Reg S), Centralnic Group , Globaltrans Investment GDR (Reg S)
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Polar Capital Global Financials Trust
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
City of London Inv Trust, Custodian Reit , Picton Property Income Ltd
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Chicago PMI (US) (14:45)
Consumer Confidence (US) (15:00)
House Price Index (US) (14:00)
Import Price Index (GER) (07:00)
Unemployment Rate (GER) (08:55)
Q2
AB Ignitis Grupe GDR (Reg S), Fondul Proprietatea S.A. GDR (Reg S)
GMS
Brave Bison Group, Just Group
EGMS
CableVision Holdings S.A. GDS
AGMS
APQ Global Limited, Edge Performance VCT 'H' Shares, Iomart Group, Northern 2 VCT, Puma Alpha Vct , Puma Vct 11, Puma VCT 12 , RUA Life Sciences
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Credit (09:30)
Wednesday September 01
INTERIMS
888 Holdings, Churchill China, Johnson Service Group, Menzies(John), Petropavlovsk, PPHE Hotel Group Ltd, Uniphar (CDI)
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Blackrock Income And Growth Investment Trust, Coventry 12 1/8% Perm Int Bearing Shs #1000, Jupiter Fund Management
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
JpMorgan China Growth & Income
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Auto Sales (US) (20:30)
Construction Spending (US) (15:00)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
Personal Consumption Expenditures (US) (13:30)
Personal Income (US) (13:30)
Personal Spending (US) (13:30)
PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)
PMI Manufacturing (EU) (09:00)
PMI Manufacturing (US) (14:45)
Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)
Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)
FINALS
Arcontech Group
SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
KKV Secured Loan Fund Limited 'C Shares', KKV Secured Loan Fund Limited NPV
AGMS
Appreciate Group, Eckoh, Jupiter Green Inv Trust, Kinovo , Polar Capital Technology Trust, Prime People, Severfield
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BRC Shop Price Index (00:01)
PMI Manufacturing (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Braemar Shipping Services
Thursday September 02
INTERIMS
Gem Diamonds Ltd. (DI), Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd Com Shs (DI), Inspired, Wentworth Resources NPV
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aferian
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Admiral Group, Antofagasta, Aviva 8 3/8% Cumulative Irrd Preference 1, Bristol Water 'A' 8 3/4% Cum Irrd Prf, Capital Limited (DI), Centamin (DI), Clarkson, Convatec Group , CPP Group, Franchise Brands, General Accident (Prf), Genuit Group, Globaldata, Grafton Group Ut (CDI), H&T Group, International Personal Finance, John Menzies 9% Cumulative Preference 1, JPMorgan American Inv Trust, Maven Income & Growth 4 VCT, Northern Electricity Prf, Pagegroup, Quilter, Rathbone Brothers, Robert Walters, S and U 6% Cumulative Prf. £1, Savills, Tclarke
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Diversified Energy Company , Premier Miton Global Renewables Trust, RM Infrastructure Income, UIL Limited (DI)
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Factory Orders (US) (15:00)
ISM Manufacturing (US) (15:00)
ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)
Producer Price Index (EU) (10:00)
FINALS
Barratt Developments
SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Admiral Group, Glencore , Pagegroup, Puma Vct 11
AGMS
Blue Planet Investment Trust, Carclo, Jet2, Jlen Environmental Assets Group Limited NPV, Monks Inv Trust, Safestay, Watches of Switzerland Group
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Continuing Claims (US) (00:00)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (00:00)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Pennon Group
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
BHP Group, Creightons, Downing Four Vct Generalist, Downing Four Vct Healthcare , Gresham House Strategic , Miton UK Microcap Trust, Panther Securities, Redde Northgate, Solid State
Friday September 03
INTERIMS
Eurocell
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Avon Protection, BB Healthcare Trust (Red), Churchill China, Direct Line Insurance Group, FDM Group (Holdings), Inchcape, Lancashire Holdings Limited, Man Group, Moneysupermarket.com Group, Phoenix Group Holdings
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Honeywell International Inc., ICG Enterprise Trust
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)
ISM Services (US) (15:00)
Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)
PMI Composite (EU) (09:00)
PMI Composite (GER) (08:55)
PMI Composite (US) (14:45)
PMI Services (EU) (09:00)
PMI Services (GER) (08:55)
PMI Services (US) (14:45)
Retail Sales (EU) (10:00)
Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)
FINALS
Allergy Therapeutics, European Opportunities Trust
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Next
AGMS
Berkeley Group Holdings (The), Stagecoach Group
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Services (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Cranswick, Iomart Group, NewRiver REIT, Severfield
On the UK corporate front, Thursday sees the release of earnings from GKN owner Melrose and housebuilder Barratt Developments.
On Melrose, due to release first-half results, UBS said the autos division is expected to be affected by the ongoing semiconductor shortage, which is a known issue that could persist beyond FY21 as uncertainty remains as to when this shortage may be fixed in 2022.
"We also believe aerospace will see a slightly better-than-expected performance, but we still estimate a year-on-year decline in 1H21 of 11%. Raw material price increases are expected to have a limited impact as we believe Melrose will be able to pass on these costs to customers albeit with a slight time lag," the bank said.
As far as Barratt's full-year results are concerned, UBS said: "Given Barratt mostly guided for FY21 (to June) we don't expect major deviations from expectations."
The bank noted that consensus for GY22 pre-tax profit stands at £977m so it expects some upgrades over time given its forecast of £1.02bn.
On the macro calendar, the US non-farm payrolls report on Friday will be the highlight, with the pace of jobs growth set to have implications for the debate around how quickly the Federal Reserve tapers asset purchases.
Deutsche Bank said its economists are expecting that a further 750,000 will be added to non-farm payrolls, which will see the unemployment rate tick down to a post-pandemic low of 5.2%.
"That said, even 750k job growth for August would leave the total number of non-farm payrolls almost 5m below its pre-Covid peak back in February 2020, while the unemployment rate is some way above the 3.5% low pre-Covid, so it's clear the labour market still has some way to go to get back to its pre-Covid state.
"That's unlike the GDP figures, with real GDP having surpassed its Q4 2019 level in Q2 2021."
Monday August 30
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Canadian General Investments Ltd.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Business Climate Indicator (EU) (10:00)
Consumer Confidence (EU) (10:00)
Industrial Confidence (EU) (10:00)
Pending Homes Sales (US) (15:00)
Services Sentiment (EU) (10:00)
FINALS
Base Resources Ltd
EGMS
Afarak Group (DI)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
M4 Money Supply (09:30)
Mortgage Approvals (09:30)
Nationwide House Price Index (07:00)
Tuesday August 31
INTERIMS
AB Ignitis Grupe GDR (Reg S), Centralnic Group , Globaltrans Investment GDR (Reg S)
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Polar Capital Global Financials Trust
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
City of London Inv Trust, Custodian Reit , Picton Property Income Ltd
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Chicago PMI (US) (14:45)
Consumer Confidence (US) (15:00)
House Price Index (US) (14:00)
Import Price Index (GER) (07:00)
Unemployment Rate (GER) (08:55)
Q2
AB Ignitis Grupe GDR (Reg S), Fondul Proprietatea S.A. GDR (Reg S)
GMS
Brave Bison Group, Just Group
EGMS
CableVision Holdings S.A. GDS
AGMS
APQ Global Limited, Edge Performance VCT 'H' Shares, Iomart Group, Northern 2 VCT, Puma Alpha Vct , Puma Vct 11, Puma VCT 12 , RUA Life Sciences
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Credit (09:30)
Wednesday September 01
INTERIMS
888 Holdings, Churchill China, Johnson Service Group, Menzies(John), Petropavlovsk, PPHE Hotel Group Ltd, Uniphar (CDI)
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Blackrock Income And Growth Investment Trust, Coventry 12 1/8% Perm Int Bearing Shs #1000, Jupiter Fund Management
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
JpMorgan China Growth & Income
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Auto Sales (US) (20:30)
Construction Spending (US) (15:00)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
Personal Consumption Expenditures (US) (13:30)
Personal Income (US) (13:30)
Personal Spending (US) (13:30)
PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)
PMI Manufacturing (EU) (09:00)
PMI Manufacturing (US) (14:45)
Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)
Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)
FINALS
Arcontech Group
SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
KKV Secured Loan Fund Limited 'C Shares', KKV Secured Loan Fund Limited NPV
AGMS
Appreciate Group, Eckoh, Jupiter Green Inv Trust, Kinovo , Polar Capital Technology Trust, Prime People, Severfield
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BRC Shop Price Index (00:01)
PMI Manufacturing (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Braemar Shipping Services
Thursday September 02
INTERIMS
Gem Diamonds Ltd. (DI), Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd Com Shs (DI), Inspired, Wentworth Resources NPV
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aferian
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Admiral Group, Antofagasta, Aviva 8 3/8% Cumulative Irrd Preference 1, Bristol Water 'A' 8 3/4% Cum Irrd Prf, Capital Limited (DI), Centamin (DI), Clarkson, Convatec Group , CPP Group, Franchise Brands, General Accident (Prf), Genuit Group, Globaldata, Grafton Group Ut (CDI), H&T Group, International Personal Finance, John Menzies 9% Cumulative Preference 1, JPMorgan American Inv Trust, Maven Income & Growth 4 VCT, Northern Electricity Prf, Pagegroup, Quilter, Rathbone Brothers, Robert Walters, S and U 6% Cumulative Prf. £1, Savills, Tclarke
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Diversified Energy Company , Premier Miton Global Renewables Trust, RM Infrastructure Income, UIL Limited (DI)
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Factory Orders (US) (15:00)
ISM Manufacturing (US) (15:00)
ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)
Producer Price Index (EU) (10:00)
FINALS
Barratt Developments
SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Admiral Group, Glencore , Pagegroup, Puma Vct 11
AGMS
Blue Planet Investment Trust, Carclo, Jet2, Jlen Environmental Assets Group Limited NPV, Monks Inv Trust, Safestay, Watches of Switzerland Group
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Continuing Claims (US) (00:00)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (00:00)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Pennon Group
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
BHP Group, Creightons, Downing Four Vct Generalist, Downing Four Vct Healthcare , Gresham House Strategic , Miton UK Microcap Trust, Panther Securities, Redde Northgate, Solid State
Friday September 03
INTERIMS
Eurocell
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Avon Protection, BB Healthcare Trust (Red), Churchill China, Direct Line Insurance Group, FDM Group (Holdings), Inchcape, Lancashire Holdings Limited, Man Group, Moneysupermarket.com Group, Phoenix Group Holdings
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Honeywell International Inc., ICG Enterprise Trust
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)
ISM Services (US) (15:00)
Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)
PMI Composite (EU) (09:00)
PMI Composite (GER) (08:55)
PMI Composite (US) (14:45)
PMI Services (EU) (09:00)
PMI Services (GER) (08:55)
PMI Services (US) (14:45)
Retail Sales (EU) (10:00)
Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)
FINALS
Allergy Therapeutics, European Opportunities Trust
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Next
AGMS
Berkeley Group Holdings (The), Stagecoach Group
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Services (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Cranswick, Iomart Group, NewRiver REIT, Severfield