Week ahead: Federal Reserve, US non-farm payrolls in the spotlight

27th Apr 2024 16:22

(Sharecast News) - Investors will have to navigate a week full of potential risks events over the next seven days, not the least the U.S. central bank's policy meeting on Wednesday and the April U.S. non-farm payrolls report two days later.

Rate-setters at the Federal Reserve are expected to stand pat, but the key question for market watchers will be whether they have thrown in the towel on interest rate cuts.

At last count, Fed funds futures were pointing to roughly 80% odds of a single 25 basis point interest rate cut by the end of 2024.

That compared to forecasts for as many as six cuts at the start of the year.

Potentially key to the outlook for rates, some economists were still anticipating an imminent slowdown in hiring and labour market strength, hence the potential importance of the next monthly jobs data.

The non-farm payrolls figures due out on Friday were expected to reveal a decline in the pace of hiring from 303,000 for March to 210,000 in April, as the weather reverted to seasonal norms.

Nevertheless, given the unexpected resilience shown by the jobs market over the past two years, investors were wary of sticking their necks out too far. In fact, a monthly pace of hiring near 200,000 would still be far greater than what was needed to bring inflation down to the Fed's target.

On home shores, consumer credit data for March were due out on Tuesday, as were figures for euro area consumer prices in April.

Survey results for UK factory sector activity and home prices would follow on Wednesday, whilst Friday would bring with it services sector survey numbers.

Preliminary euro area consumer price data for April would be forthcoming on Tuesday, alongside Chinese factory sector survey readings.

Monday 29 April

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

New Star Investment Trust

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Business Climate Indicator (EU) (10:00)

Consumer Confidence (EU) (10:00)

Economic Sentiment Indicator (EU) (10:00)

Industrial Confidence (EU) (10:00)

Services Sentiment (EU) (10:00)

FINALS

Biome Technologies, Christie Group, Gresham House Energy Storage Fund, Gresham Technologies, Jadestone Energy, One Media IP Group, SpaceandPeople, SpaceandPeople

AGMS

Globaltrans Investment GDR (Reg S), GoldStone Resources Ltd, Ocado Group, Symphony International Holdings Ltd.

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

NATWEST GROUP, Quartix Technologies

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Banco Santander S.A.

Tuesday 30 April

INTERIMS

Essensys

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Chemring 7% Cumulative Preference Shares 1, Heavitree Brewery 11 1/2% Cum Prf , Latham (James) 8% Cumulative Preference 1

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE

CT Private Equity Trust, Middlefield Canadian Income PCC

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Chicago PMI (US) (14:45)

Consumer Confidence (US) (15:00)

Employment Cost Index (US) (13:30)

GDP (Preliminary) (EU) (10:00)

GDP (Preliminary) (GER) (07:00)

GDP (Preliminary) (GER) (10:00)

House Price Index (US) (14:00)

Import Price Index (GER) (07:00)

Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)

Unemployment Rate (GER) (08:55)

GMS

Amigo Holdings, Fondul Proprietatea S.A. GDR (Reg S)

FINALS

Avacta Group, Capital & Regional, Card Factory, Fadel Partners, Inc Com Stk Usd0.001 (Di) Regs Cat 3/144A, Kelso Group Holdings, Northcoders Group , RBG Holdings, Roadside Real Estate , Shield Therapeutics, Strip Tinning Holdings

ANNUAL REPORT

Fondul Proprietatea S.A. GDR (Reg S)

EGMS

Fondul Proprietatea S.A. GDR (Reg S)

AGMS

Anglo American, BBGI Global Infrastructure S.A. NPV (DI), CVC Income & Growth Limited NPV Euro, Elementis, Elementis, Fondul Proprietatea S.A. GDR (Reg S), Minoan Group, Petro Matad Ltd., Rotork, The Pebble Group, Versarien

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Elementis, Howden Joinery Group, IDOX, Rotork

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Consumer Credit (09:30)

M4 Money Supply (09:30)

Mortgage Approvals (09:30)

Nationwide House Price Index (07:00)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Abrdn , European Assets Trust , Wynnstay Group

Q1

Banco Santander S.A., St James's Place

Wednesday 01 May

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

NWF Group

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Natwest Group 11% Cum Non-Red Prf Gbp1 , Natwest Group 5.5% Cum Non-Red Prf Gbp1

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Auto Sales (US) (20:30)

Construction Spending (US) (15:00)

Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)

FOMC Interest Rate (US) (19:00)

ISM Manufacturing (US) (15:00)

ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)

MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)

PMI Manufacturing (US) (14:45)

GMS

Apax Global Alpha Limited

FINALS

HSS Hire Group , Maintel Holdings

AGMS

Alfa Financial Software Holdings , Alpha Group International, Apax Global Alpha Limited , Domino's Pizza Group, Flutter Entertainment (DI), Glanbia (CDI), Johnson Service Group, Lancashire Holdings Limited, Smith & Nephew, Spirent Communications, STV Group, Tritax Big Box Reit , Witan Inv Trust

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Haleon , Next

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

BRC Shop Price Index (00:01)

Nationwide House Price Index (07:00)

PMI Manufacturing (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Dalata Hotel Group (CDI)

Thursday 02 May

INTERIMS

Smiths News

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE

AB Dynamics, Carr's Group, Mobeus Income & Growth Vct, Seneca Growth Capital Vct B, Smart (J) & Co.

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE

British American Tobacco

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Greencoat Renewables (CDI)

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Balance of Trade (US) (13:30)

Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)

Factory Orders (US) (15:00)

Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)

PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)

PMI Manufacturing (EU) (09:00)

GMS

Ultimate Products

FINALS

NAHL Group

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Alfa Financial Software Holdings

EGMS

AIB Group (CDI)

AGMS

AIB Group (CDI), Aviva, Ecora Resources, Enwell Energy, F&C Investment Trust, Glenveagh Properties (CDI), Grafton Group Ut (CDI), Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (CDI), Hostelworld Group , Howden Joinery Group, ITV, Kerry Group 'A' Shares (CDI), Melrose Industries, Moneysupermarket.com Group, Morgan Sindall Group, Personal Group Holdings, Reach, Reckitt Benckiser Group, Reckitt Benckiser Group, RHI Magnesita N.V. (DI), RIT Capital Partners, SIG, Ulster Bank Ireland Designated Activity Company 11.75% Sub Bds

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Lancashire Holdings Limited, RHI Magnesita N.V. (DI), Smurfit Kappa Group (CDI), TI Fluid Systems, TI Fluid Systems

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Banco Santander S.A., CLS Holdings, Nichols, Schroders

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

4Imprint Group, Ashtead Technology Holdings, Coats Group, Dunedin Income Growth Inv Trust, Elementis, FBD Holdings (CDI), Genuit Group, Global Opportunities Trust, Henry Boot, Hiscox Limited (DI), Inchcape, Investec Investment Trust 3 1/2% Cumulative Preference Stock, IWG , LLoyds Banking Group 9.25% Non-Cum Irredeemable Pref Shares, LLoyds Banking Group 9.75% Non-Cum Irredeemable Pref Shares, Porvair, Relx plc, Robert Walters, Senior, Zotefoams

Q1

Shell , Standard Chartered

Friday 03 May

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

B.P. Marsh & Partners, Beazley, The European Smaller Companies Trust

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE

CT UK High Income Trust, CT UK High Income Trust B , I3 Energy , Marble Point Loan Financing Limited NPV, TwentyFour Select Monthly Income Fund Limited

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)

ISM Services (US) (15:00)

Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)

PMI Composite (EU) (09:00)

PMI Composite (GER) (08:55)

PMI Composite (US) (14:45)

PMI Services (EU) (09:00)

PMI Services (GER) (08:55)

PMI Services (US) (14:45)

Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)

Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)

FINALS

Trainline

AGMS

HSBC Holdings, InterContinental Hotels Group, Mondi, More Acquisitions

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

InterContinental Hotels Group, Mondi

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

PMI Composite (09:30)

PMI Services (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Anglo American, Glanbia (CDI), Hikma Pharmaceuticals, Maven Income & Growth 3 VCT, Maven Income and Growth VCT 5, Pearson, SEGRO, Synectics