Ryanair cuts traffic forecast as H1 profits drop

4th Nov 2024 07:28

(Sharecast News) - Ryanair cut its full-year traffic forecast on Monday and reported a drop in first-half profits, as it took a hit from lower fares and Boeing delays.

First-half profit after tax fell 18% to €1.79bn, with total revenue up just 1% to €8.69bn.

The average fare declined by 10% from the same period a year earlier to €52. Ryanair's chief executive Michael O'Leary pointed to consumer spending pressure, driven by higher-for-longer interest rates and inflation reduction measures.

Ryanair said traffic grew 9% to a record 115m, despite repeated Boeing delays.

However, the airline cut its FY26 traffic growth target to 210m passengers from 215m to reflect the Boeing delivery delays. "While we continue to work with Boeing leadership to accelerate aircraft deliveries ahead of peak S.25, the risk of further delivery delays remains high," it said.

For FY25, the airline continues to target between 198m and 200m passengers, subject to no worsening of current Boeing delivery delays.

O'Leary said: "Forward bookings suggest that Q3 demand is strong and the decline in pricing appears to be moderating. We remain cautious on Q3's average fare outlook, expecting them to be modestly lower than Q3 prior year (subject to close-in Christmas and New Year bookings).

"As is normal at this time of year, we have almost zero Q4 visibility, although this quarter will not benefit from last year's early Easter, which will make the prior year Q4 comps challenging. It therefore remains too early to provide meaningful FY25 profit after tax guidance.

"The final FY25 outcome will be subject to avoiding adverse developments during the remaining five months of FY25, especially given the risk of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, repeated Air Traffic Control short-staffing and capacity restrictions, and/or further Boeing delivery delays."

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: "For a time, it felt like airlines and travel companies could pass on any costs to travellers as post-pandemic demand to get away was so strong. Combined with relatively limited capacity and you had the recipe for strong returns for carriers like Ryanair which were in a financially and operationally robust position.

"However, it looks like the sunny days for the sector are behind it, based on Ryanair's latest numbers. It saw its first-half profit stripped down by the impact of lower fares over the crucial summer period as consumers' capacity and willingness to splash out receded.

"There have been some signs of improvement in recent weeks but it remains to be seen if these will be sustained.

"Like several of its peers, Ryanair is also facing a knock-on effect from the production problems and industrial action at Boeing and, tellingly, has trimmed its forecast for passenger growth. The company also announced plans to cut UK flights thanks to the increase in passenger duty in the recent Budget."