London pre-open: Stocks seen lower as Americans head to the polls

5th Nov 2024 07:37

(Sharecast News) - London stocks were set to fall at the open on Tuesday as Americans headed to the polls.

The FTSE 100 was called to open around 10 points lower.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said: "The week started on a cautious note in Europe and the US as today's US presidential election looks very close to call and could eventually result in a tight - and even a contested outcome.

"As such, the major risk today is not a Harris or a Trump win, but it's the reality that a Harris win could be heavily contested by Mr Trump and lead to violence and chaos, and more uncertainty than necessary and hit sentiment.

"But apart from that, the fact that Trump and Harris have different economic and political agendas, different priorities and the fact that there are sectors that could see a better lift under one or the other presidency may not change the overall performance of the long-term stock market, and not even the concerned sectors...

"Did you know that clean energy outperformed traditional energies by 43% under Trump's presidency? And, wait, traditional energies outpaced clean energies by 53% per year under the Biden presidency.

"And zooming out, a quick glance to the S&P 500's performance a year following a US election has always been positive since 1984, no matter if the US was led by a Republican or a Democrat, except in 2000's tech bubble."

On home shores, data from the British Retail Consortium and KPMG showed that retail sales saw a modest increase in October, rising by 0.6% year-on-year.

The growth was markedly slower than the 2.6% uptick seen in the same month last year, and also fell below the three-month average growth of 1.3% and the 12-month average of 1%.

Food sales showed resilience, climbing 2.9% year-on-year over the past three months, although that was a notable slowdown from the 7.9% surge seen in October last year.

The sector continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace, with a 12-month average increase of 4.1%.

Non-food sales, however, remained challenging - the category saw a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year over the three-month period, a marginal improvement over last year's 1.0% drop and better than the 12-month average decline of 1.6%.

In-store non-food sales dipped 1.2% year-on-year for the three months to October, faring slightly better than the annual average decline of 2.0%.

"After a good start to autumn, October's sales growth was disappointing," said BRC chief executive officer Helen Dickinson.

"This was partly driven by half term falling a week later this year, depressing the October figures, and November sales will likely see more of a boost.

"Uncertainty during the run-up to the Budget, coupled with rising energy bills, also spooked some consumers."

Dickinson said fashion sales took the biggest hit as the mild weather delayed winter purchases, while health and beauty sales remained buoyant, with beauty advent calendars "flying" off shelves.

In corporate news, Weir Group reported a 15% increase in original equipment orders in the third quarter, driven by substantial greenfield projects including the Reko Diq copper and gold mine and OCP phosphate projects, contributing £51m.

Aftermarket demand remained steady, with minerals aftermarket orders up 3%, while ESCO saw a slight 2% decline, offset by gains in core ground engaging tools.

The FTSE 100 company reaffirmed its full-year guidance for revenue and profit growth, aiming for an 18% operating margin and 90% to 100% cash conversion, alongside cumulative savings of £19m towards a £60m target by 2026.

Schroders reported a record high in assets under management of £777.4bn by the third quarter, with net inflows of £1.6bn over the year, despite negative flows from joint ventures due to volatility in China.

Its asset management division saw growth in private markets and steady demand in mutual funds, although its solutions unit faced an anticipated £8bn outflow from the Scottish Widows mandate in the fourth quarter, and £2bn from institutional losses.

Its wealth management operation maintained positive momentum driven by Cazenove Capital, with the company on track to meet its annual net new business target of 5% to 7% of opening assets under management.