Indivior shares tank after another profit warning

10th Oct 2024 12:38

(Sharecast News) - Shares in Indivior plunged on Thursday after the pharma group cut its full-year revenue forecast for the second times following a weaker-than-expected third-quarter performance from Sublocade, its treatment of moderate to severe opioid use disorder.

The company said it is seeing faster initial adoption among treatment providers of a competing long-acting injectable (LAI) to Sublocade, as well as "variability in the timing of funding among certain Criminal Justice System accounts and incremental lower trade stocking".

As a result, third-quarter sales of Sublocade would be between $302m and $309m, up just 13% on last year at the midpoint of the range. This means that full-year sales of the treatment are now expected to be between $725m and $745m, up 17% on last year at the midpoint.

The company had said in July that 2024 Sublocade sales would be between $765m and $805m, representing 25% growth at the midpoint.

As a result, full-year net revenues are now expected to total $1,125m-1,165m, lower than July's already downgraded guidance of $1,150m-1,215m. This equates to just 5% growth on last year.

The downgrade - alongside a new forecast of no improvement to margins - means adjusted operating profits will be flat year-on-year at around $260m-280m, compared with July's $285m-320m target.

"We are seeing faster than expected initial adoption of the competitive product to SUBLOCADE," said chief executive Mark Crossley.

"In addition, looking to the year ahead, as the US market adjusts to two LAI products, pressure on SUBLOCADE volume growth is expected from continued initial competitor adoption. Therefore, we no longer expect that SUBLOCADE will exit 2025 at a $1 billion net revenue run rate," he said.

The stock, which had been trading in positive territory before the update at midday, was down nearly 17% at 599.5p by 1250 BST.