Broker tips: Aston Martin Lagonda, Burberry, Johnson Matthey

3rd Oct 2024 16:08

(Sharecast News) - Jefferies downgraded its stance on Aston Martin Lagonda on Thursday to 'hold' from 'buy' and cut the price target to 120.0p from 25.00p as it said it struggles to see a scenario that does not require new equity.

The bank said that in his first public move, new chief executive Adrian Hallmark did not shy away from hard decisions to reset an ambitious guidance.

"The incremental £135.0m liquidity secured early August should accommodate the incremental cash burn but leaves no room for error," it said.

Jefferies said that from there, it sees "high risk" that AML will need another equity injection, either for rescue, to kickstart deleveraging or an M&A scenario.

"We appreciate the latter two could be positive for equity value, but fundamental value does not support sufficient upside potential to remain 'buy'," it said.

Jefferies cut its 2024 EBITDA estimate by 28% to £279m and raised its cash outflow estimate by more than three times to 424m, taking year-end net debt to £1.4bn.

Burberry was under the cosh on Thursday as Stifel cut its price target on the shares to 720.0p from 800.0p and reduced its FY25 and FY26 sales forecasts by 8% and 10%, respectively.

Stifel said it was cutting the sales forecasts as it lowered its retail comparitives assumptions for Q225, H225 and FY26. It now models retail comps down 23% for 2Q25 (from -16% previously), down 10% for 2H25 (from up 2% previously) and up 3% for FY26 (from up 5% previously).

The bank also said it now models an operating loss for FY25 of £38.0m, versus a previous forecast of an operating profit of £90.0m, reflecting a bigger loss in 1H25 and a more muted operating profit rebound in H225. Stifel added that noth it and the market expect weak H125 results and a cautious H225 outlook.

Stifel, which has a 'hold' rating on the stock, said market conditions are unforgiving for turnaround stories like Burberry lacking brand clarity and lacking "brand heat".

It also said that Burberry's market share erosion in the last decade resulted in reduced marketing firepower to compete "with deeper pockets from Continental luxury mega-brands fishing in the same pond".

Analysts at Berenberg lowered their target on chemicals firm Johnson Matthey from 1,800.0p to 1,650.0p on Thursday but acknowledged management has avoided missteps and "righted the ship" following the announcement of the company's exit from battery materials.

The German bank, which has a 'hold' rating on the stock, stated that the firming of platinum group metals pricing and the build-out of the new energy pipeline in catalyst technologies were both helpful.

However, Berenberg also noted that prior to the huge changes wrought by the rise of electric vehicles, an environment characterised by profit warnings at larger European automotive makers of the kind seen recently at the likes of Volkswagen and Mercedes would not be one in which it believes shares would have performed well.

"The cuts to our EPS estimates reflect a c40-50-10 combination of FX, lower volumes and slightly lower prices in the Clean Air segment, and earlier divestment of value businesses than previously assumed. There is a small headwind from assumed lower volumes recycled in PGM services; we would guess consumers, in a higher interest rate environment, are holding on to cars for longer before scrapping. Shares trade on 6x 2025 EV/EBITDA," said Berenberg.